Decision Analysis, Regression Models, and Forecasting
Define opportunity loss. What decision-making criteria are used with an opportunity loss table? Explain how a scatter diagram can be used to identify the type of regression to use. Describe briefly the steps used to develop a forecasting system. In Problem 3-22 (page 99) you are introduced to Allen Young and his need for assistance in making the best investment decision using a decision table. Now, Allen is thinking about paying for a stock market newsletter. A friend of Allen said that these types of letters could predict very accurately whether the market would be good, fair, or poor. Then, based on these predictions, Allen could make better investment decisions. What is the most that Allen would be willing to pay for a newsletter? Allen now believes that a good market will give a return of only 11% instead of 14%. Will this information change the amount that Allen would be willing to pay for the newsletter? If your answer is yes, determine the most that Allen would be willing to pay, given this new information. Using computer software, find the least squares regression line for the data in Problem 4-13 (page 140). Based on the F test, is there a statistically significant relationship between the first test grade and the final average in the course?


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